After a record-breaking winter/spring production of the blueberry crop across the country, we have finally seen prices increase for a few weeks on the East Coast, which is likely to last for a few weeks before the commencement of the rabbiteye season. The rabbiteye crop is looking very strong this year, and with the rain over the last few weeks, it will be on track to be similar to last year and will ramp up in December. Unlike last year, the market will have 170g punnet to assist in the volumes coming through, but there is likely to be increased competition with Cherries and Stone fruit, which was in limited supply last year due to flooding in the Riverina.
Volumes in WA continue to be strong for standard fruit and Eureka spec fruit is hitting peak volumes over the next four weeks with a strong Echo crop in the Southwest, which will see fruit move east in the coming weeks to support the demand.
Raspberries and Blackberries are seeing a change in the market this week by introducing the 170g punnet into NSW for Coles and Aldi. This is one week earlier than expected, and we expect Woolworths to follow suit next week. This will be the first time that Blueberries, Raspberries and Blackberries will be in the same size punnet simultaneously. We will be watching shopper behaviour in the coming weeks to understand how customers are shopping with the packsize changes. Volumes in WA are expected to be flat over the coming weeks, with production expected to ramp up in 14-20 days.
Strawberry volumes have also eased off over the last 5-7 days, with a lot of QLD Winter production finishing up after a very long season. Volumes from southern production (VIC/TAS) have also been stop-start with temperatures moving from warm to cool over the last week and are expected to be warm again in the coming week.
Also note, in the coming weeks post Melbourne Cup, we start to see a lull in demand across all retail as customers are pivoting some of their discretionary spending into Christmas purchases. We expect consumers to spend less on average this month than last year, as the full effect of interest rates was not felt in 2022.
